On a Friday morning when the Federal Reserve’s new chair was delivering his first Jackson Hole keynote, President Trump was on Truth Social doing something that stopped the financial world mid-scroll.
He amplified a $10,000 gold forecast.
Not from a bank. Not from a hedge fund. From Jim Rickards — former CIA operative, Pentagon adviser, White House consultant, and Federal Reserve insider who has spent his career studying how financial systems break and what survives when they do.
The video Trump shared was titled the Midterm Meltdown. It contained a series of political predictions for the months ahead. But the number that caught the most attention was the one about gold.
Rickards expects it to hit $10,000 an ounce. Before the end of 2026. Possibly early 2027 if not sooner. And unlike most analysts who make bold price calls from a distance, he has his own money in it.
“I have at least a million dollars in physical gold,” he said Friday in a live interview recorded moments after Warsh’s speech. He paused. “At least.”
Why Trump Shared It
Rickards said he was surprised to see the amplification. His team had not paid for placement. Truth Social does not sell advertising.
“Trump did it on his own for his own reasons,” Rickards said. “My takeaway was he wouldn’t have done it if he didn’t believe what was in it.”
A sitting president voluntarily sharing a $10,000 gold forecast on his personal social media platform is not a routine event. It signals something about where the administration’s thinking is on monetary policy, the dollar, and the role of hard assets in the current environment — even if the White House does not say it in those words.
The Case for $10,000
Gold pulled back sharply from its January 2026 high of $5,400 an ounce, touching a low of $3,900 before recovering to approximately $4,500 to $4,700. Most analysts looking at that drawdown would declare the bull market over.
Rickards disagrees.
“The dynamics and fundamentals have not changed,” he said. “Central banks are still net buyers. Mining output is still flat. The geopolitical world is practically standing on its head. And gold is an alternative to U.S. Treasuries for those worried about U.S. sanctions.”
Each of those statements is supported by current data. The World Gold Council’s most recent survey found 89% of central bank reserve managers expect global gold holdings to grow over the next 12 months. Global mine output has been flat for years as major deposits age and new discoveries become increasingly rare. The decision by the U.S. to freeze Russian central bank assets in 2022 — demonstrating that dollar reserves held in Western custody can be weaponized — has accelerated every nation’s interest in assets that cannot be sanctioned.
Rickards acknowledged Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech introduces short-term headwinds. A more hawkish Fed means higher real yields, which increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
“But only in the short run,” he said. “Gold has found its footing. It’s hanging in there. And I absolutely expect it to go a lot higher.”
What Warsh Said — and What He Did Not
Rickards’ analysis of the speech is worth understanding because he was reading what was not there.
Warsh titled his Jackson Hole address after a Hemingway short story collection. Rickards noted that Hemingway’s core literary principle was the iceberg theory — what you cut from the draft remains invisibly present for the reader.
“I suspect Warsh is doing the exact same thing,” Rickards said. “What did he leave unsaid?”
What Warsh left unsaid was the phrase QE. What he said instead was this: “Unconventional policies to spur economic activity may suit genuine crises but should otherwise be used sparingly, if at all.”
Rickards’ translation: no more quantitative easing. The Fed under Warsh intends to use conventional rate policy and leave the money-printing tools on the shelf. Whether that stated intention holds under the pressure of a slowing economy and a $40 trillion national debt is a different question entirely.
Where the Institutions Stand
Rickards is more aggressive than Wall Street’s published targets but he is not alone in his direction.
JPMorgan forecasts gold at $6,000 by year-end. Goldman Sachs holds a constructive long-term view. The World Gold Council’s 76-bank survey shows 45% of reserve managers plan to add gold within the next 12 months. The national debt crossed $40 trillion this month. All three major credit rating agencies have removed the United States from their top credit tier. The dollar has lost approximately 20% of its purchasing power since 2021.
Rickards is looking at the same data as every other analyst. He is simply drawing a different conclusion about how far the repricing goes.
“This is not a five-year forecast,” he said. “It’s coming soon.”
The president of the United States thought that was worth sharing with the country.
A Former CIA Adviser Just Called $10,000 Gold – Trump Agreed
Jim Rickards expects $10,000 gold before the end of 2026—a bold forecast recently shared by Donald Trump. Here is the analysis behind the claim.
On a Friday morning when the Federal Reserve’s new chair was delivering his first Jackson Hole keynote, President Trump was on Truth Social doing something that stopped the financial world mid-scroll.
He amplified a $10,000 gold forecast.
Not from a bank. Not from a hedge fund. From Jim Rickards — former CIA operative, Pentagon adviser, White House consultant, and Federal Reserve insider who has spent his career studying how financial systems break and what survives when they do.
The video Trump shared was titled the Midterm Meltdown. It contained a series of political predictions for the months ahead. But the number that caught the most attention was the one about gold.
Rickards expects it to hit $10,000 an ounce. Before the end of 2026. Possibly early 2027 if not sooner. And unlike most analysts who make bold price calls from a distance, he has his own money in it.
“I have at least a million dollars in physical gold,” he said Friday in a live interview recorded moments after Warsh’s speech. He paused. “At least.”
Why Trump Shared It
Rickards said he was surprised to see the amplification. His team had not paid for placement. Truth Social does not sell advertising.
A sitting president voluntarily sharing a $10,000 gold forecast on his personal social media platform is not a routine event. It signals something about where the administration’s thinking is on monetary policy, the dollar, and the role of hard assets in the current environment — even if the White House does not say it in those words.
The Case for $10,000
Gold pulled back sharply from its January 2026 high of $5,400 an ounce, touching a low of $3,900 before recovering to approximately $4,500 to $4,700. Most analysts looking at that drawdown would declare the bull market over.
Rickards disagrees.
“The dynamics and fundamentals have not changed,” he said. “Central banks are still net buyers. Mining output is still flat. The geopolitical world is practically standing on its head. And gold is an alternative to U.S. Treasuries for those worried about U.S. sanctions.”
Each of those statements is supported by current data. The World Gold Council’s most recent survey found 89% of central bank reserve managers expect global gold holdings to grow over the next 12 months. Global mine output has been flat for years as major deposits age and new discoveries become increasingly rare. The decision by the U.S. to freeze Russian central bank assets in 2022 — demonstrating that dollar reserves held in Western custody can be weaponized — has accelerated every nation’s interest in assets that cannot be sanctioned.
Rickards acknowledged Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech introduces short-term headwinds. A more hawkish Fed means higher real yields, which increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
“But only in the short run,” he said. “Gold has found its footing. It’s hanging in there. And I absolutely expect it to go a lot higher.”
What Warsh Said — and What He Did Not
Rickards’ analysis of the speech is worth understanding because he was reading what was not there.
Warsh titled his Jackson Hole address after a Hemingway short story collection. Rickards noted that Hemingway’s core literary principle was the iceberg theory — what you cut from the draft remains invisibly present for the reader.
What Warsh left unsaid was the phrase QE. What he said instead was this: “Unconventional policies to spur economic activity may suit genuine crises but should otherwise be used sparingly, if at all.”
Rickards’ translation: no more quantitative easing. The Fed under Warsh intends to use conventional rate policy and leave the money-printing tools on the shelf. Whether that stated intention holds under the pressure of a slowing economy and a $40 trillion national debt is a different question entirely.
Where the Institutions Stand
Rickards is more aggressive than Wall Street’s published targets but he is not alone in his direction.
JPMorgan forecasts gold at $6,000 by year-end. Goldman Sachs holds a constructive long-term view. The World Gold Council’s 76-bank survey shows 45% of reserve managers plan to add gold within the next 12 months. The national debt crossed $40 trillion this month. All three major credit rating agencies have removed the United States from their top credit tier. The dollar has lost approximately 20% of its purchasing power since 2021.
Rickards is looking at the same data as every other analyst. He is simply drawing a different conclusion about how far the repricing goes.
“This is not a five-year forecast,” he said. “It’s coming soon.”
The president of the United States thought that was worth sharing with the country.
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